Anyone not buying from the USA?

[Frankie Crocker]

Now the exchange rate has touched $1.20 to the pound, has anyone decided to put record buying on hold for the time being? As the pound has recently lost 20% of it's value, can we expect to buy that $150 record for $120 any time soon? Is this another crisis to blame on the banker-boys or is there a good reason for the postman making fewer trips up my path?

[John Reed]

Why are you putting blame on the banker boys?  The weakness in sterling is mainly due to fears over Britain's medium to long economic standing in the wake of the Brexit vote.

[Frankie Crocker]

38 minutes ago, John Reed said:

Why are you putting blame on the banker boys?  The weakness in sterling is mainly due to fears over Britain's medium to long economic standing in the wake of the Brexit vote.

So why are the money merchants switching funds from one account to another apart from making a profit on the trade? Why the short-term overreaction when the long term prognosis is optimistic? The EU is a house of cards on the brink of crumbling so why the fear of UK stagnation when the opposite may be more likely? And more to the point, why are my records costing more? There's talk now of Christmas being spoiled by rising prices. Next year it will be holidaymakers staying at home instead of Disneyland. If and when the EU (and UK) clamps down on Apple, Amazon, Starbucks etc there won't be so much confidence in US currency yet this is starting to happen. I blame the politicians for much of the uncertainty but the bankers are making things worse.

[Modernsoulsucks]

Please can we avoid bringing up EU/ Brexit etc.

Just stick to original question as to how £ to $ rate will affect record buying habits,

Thanks

ROD [Moderator]

[Kegsy]

8 hours ago, modernsoulsucks said:

Please can we avoid bringing up EU/ Brexit etc.

Just stick to original question as to how £ to $ rate will affect record buying habits,

Thanks

ROD [Moderator]

Not as much as when Johnny boy brought that bloody price guide out, that's for sure. If I was still buying in the states I'd be filling my boots NOW as the pound has a lot further to fall IMHO.

[Britishbarry]

I've not been buying so much from the USA for a while now but this is mainly due to the increase in postal charges. The drop in the value of the pound wouldn't necessarily put me off buying something if it was a record I wanted.

 

 

[Julianb]

Looking at some of the prices being paid makes me wonder if the buyers (if UK based) are taking the low conversion rate into account( and let's not forget the percentage reduction in the rate if using PayPal).

Not bought anything from the States for a few months now since the rate started to drop.

[Liamgp]

More reluctant to buy due to the customs regularly hitting me for charges than exchange rates!

[Chris L]

I guess we'll all see over the next few weeks how things go on Ebay, always a good Litmus test. When this happened last time in 2009 US sellers did lower their prices. It will be interesting to see if people are prepared to pay £250 instead of £200 for a record. I will certainly bear it in mind, boy!! bring back the £1.00 = $1.90 days 

[Chris L]

1 hour ago, LiamGP said:

More reluctant to buy due to the customs regularly hitting me for charges than exchange rates!

You can always ask your seller to put value at $25.00, almost all will do that for you. I usually make it a condition of buying, most sellers know that if you are going to pay £50.00 or imports that's less money for them

[Samplat]

It now has to be equivalent of £15 which is $18. I was charged vat £3.00 + £8.00 collection because the record was valued at $22

[purist]

I always work it backwards. I start with what I think the 45 is worth in £'s based more on condition that book values, then convert to dollars at todays tourist exchange rate, round it down by a couple of percent because you never get the actual percentage when you exchange, then deduct the postage charges, then that's what I'll bid. 
This means I don't win some, but so what, most are like buses, another will come along sooner or later. Because I only ever bid as the auction is in its final moments I don't get caught out like early bidders do when the currency exchange fluctuates, but you gotta feel sorry for those who bid several days ago and now they will have to pay more than expected.
btw I'd already had a conversation with several USA sellers, and they think the in-demand and top money items will still continue to fetch massive money, growing month on month, making me an anachronism I suppose, but then I've always trawled the bargain buys for best part of 50 years, ain't gonna change now
 

[Chris Anderton]

I was on a buying trip in the US last week. It did make buying some records tough and I walked away from plenty too.

The average American record dealer has no concept of currency fluctuations or the fact that all the popsike prices they are quoting for records were achieved when the Pound was 1.6-1.9 against the dollar thus giving an obscured value.

Still managed to work out fine in the end though.

Chris

[Chris L]

1 hour ago, chris anderton said:

I was on a buying trip in the US last week. It did make buying some records tough and I walked away from plenty too.

The average American record dealer has no concept of currency fluctuations or the fact that all the popsike prices they are quoting for records were achieved when the Pound was 1.6-1.9 against the dollar thus giving an obscured value.

Still managed to work out fine in the end though.

Chris

When I was in the US in 2009 after the last UK pound crash I did see a reduction in dollar prices but I suspect you're right when you say that US sellers will not "get" a decling currency, let's not forget about 95+% of NS purchases are to the UK.

[Chalky]

The pound hasn't always been strong as it was running up to the brexit vote, speculators put around 8 or 9 cents on the pound in the final week thinking we would be staying in, but that said I don't buy much from the States anyway because of the postage, not the £/$ rate.

[Frankie Crocker]

Thanks for the comments - please keep them coming. So far, concerns regarding postage costs and customs charges appear to outweigh currency fluctuations when it comes to buying from the US.

[Chris L]

1 hour ago, FRANKIE CROCKER said:

Thanks for the comments - please keep them coming. So far, concerns regarding postage costs and customs charges appear to outweigh currency fluctuations when it comes to buying from the US.

It's so recent that buyers have yet to realise the consequencies, once they start getting their Visa card bills that could change.

[Dave Pinch]

i think some of the usa guys do realise the exchange rate...its just that some of them are greedy bleeders

[Frankie Crocker]

5 hours ago, chris anderton said:

I was on a buying trip in the US last week. It did make buying some records tough and I walked away from plenty too.

The average American record dealer has no concept of currency fluctuations or the fact that all the popsike prices they are quoting for records were achieved when the Pound was 1.6-1.9 against the dollar thus giving an obscured value.

Still managed to work out fine in the end though.

Chris

I'm heading there in a fortnight but suspect that shopping will need to be prudent. Sure, if I see something nice record-wise , I'll end up paying more than I'd like for it but that's often the case anyway and you kid yourself that it was justifiable as it was mint or whatever.

[Agent45]

9 hours ago, LiamGP said:

More reluctant to buy due to the customs regularly hitting me for charges than exchange rates!

I think this is an important point. You can't really blame anyone in the U.S. for what you tax system and own country's political decisions have created for you. Don't worry. Once Trump becomes President, the value of the U.S. dollar will make you all feel better about yourselves. 

On topic, I'll say that my overseas orders started dropping when the USPS rates increased. I haven't noticed a further drop since the Brexit vote though. What I'm seeing more of, is international customers finding relatives, friends, etc inside the U.S. to accept shipment their records, and then they're either having them sent home in bulk or carrying them home personally at the end of a U.S. trip. This is something that maybe everyone doesn't have access to, but more of you should consider if you are able.

[Frankie Crocker]

37 minutes ago, Agent45 said:

I think this is an important point. You can't really blame anyone in the U.S. for what you tax system and own country's political decisions have created for you. Don't worry. Once Trump becomes President, the value of the U.S. dollar will make you all feel better about yourselves. 

On topic, I'll say that my overseas orders started dropping when the USPS rates increased. I haven't noticed a further drop since the Brexit vote though. What I'm seeing more of, is international customers finding relatives, friends, etc inside the U.S. to accept shipment their records, and then they're either having them sent home in bulk or carrying them home personally at the end of a U.S. trip. This is something that maybe everyone doesn't have access to, but more of you should consider if you are able.

Very good point. The last five records I bought from the US are with a contact in Ohio and will await my arrival next year for collection. With internal US postage at $3-4, it makes little sense to pay for dozens of packets per year crossing the Atlantic one by one. Good to hear about the situation across the pond - I like to know how our old colonies are doing now they've gained independence...

[Bunderthollox]

Nah..sitting on sales at present notice the price diff go up on something i was gonna buy. 

[Russoul1]

still a ebay bargain to be had from the states....just won a real rare record with no one bidding!!

 

 

 

[Frankie Crocker]

1 hour ago, russoul1 said:

still a ebay bargain to be had from the states....just won a real rare record with no one bidding!!

 

 

 

Nice one Russ. Not the Timmy Williams on Mala then?

[Russoul1]

5 minutes ago, FRANKIE CROCKER said:

Nice one Russ. Not the Timmy Williams on Mala then?

I wish.....in my top 10 all timers

but just shows that theres still great unknown stuff out there...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris L]

With the UK£ still dropping don't be surprised at a £1.00 = $1.00 exchange rate some time soon, can't believe sales won't be affected if that happens.

[Frankie Crocker]

1 hour ago, Chris L said:

With the UK£ still dropping don't be surprised at a £1.00 = $1.00 exchange rate some time soon, can't believe sales won't be affected if that happens.

For sure, it's a wake up call. If that comes to pass, then record buyers may well have to adjust their spending. That said, I'm curious to know if US dealers will be making any reductions to come into line with currency changes as the era of the '$150 record' is becoming a distant memory. Even this figure which equated to £100 for several years was a benchmark arising from Manship publications that cited a 20% VAT component within the priceguide quote.

[ajb]

don't worry once Donald gets in it'll even its self out  nothing will do more for uncertainty than big Don becoming president.

[Frankie Crocker]

26 minutes ago, ajb said:

don't worry once Donald gets in it'll even its self out  nothing will do more for uncertainty than big Don becoming president.

Not worried,  Donald won't become President. Even Donald Duck wears a Donald Trump watch. And, Donald Duck and his mates pay their taxes. Perhaps with this global uncertainty, maybe we should all be buying vinyl like there's no tomorrow.

[Jnixon]

There are still bargains to be had even if we do reach parity with the dollar.  

Of course people will buy less but I doubt if US dealers will drop prices as the UK is not the only place soul records get sold to. 

Sell in dollars if you are buying in dollars. 

 

[Guest MBarrett]

Not all that long ago really:

"In March, 1940, the British government took the decision to peg the value of the pound to the dollar, at $4.03, where it stayed for several years."

As kids in the 60s we used to call 5s a dollar and 2s 6d half a dollar. Must have been harking back to that 1940s exchange rate.

[Chris L]

11 hours ago, MBarrett said:

Not all that long ago really:

"In March, 1940, the British government took the decision to peg the value of the pound to the dollar, at $4.03, where it stayed for several years."

As kids in the 60s we used to call 5s a dollar and 2s 6d half a dollar. Must have been harking back to that 1940s exchange rate.

Under Thatcher is peaked to over $2.00 to the UK pound.

[Vadnochka]

Exchange rates have always been volatile - My first trip to the USA - August 1968 -$2.40 / £1 = a penny for a penny - Wilson government devalued and we were on the bones of our arse as a nation - little did we know what was coming as the industrial strife of the 70's was just around the corner.

The current situation of @ $1.25 / £ is only relevant if you are in a set-sale as against an auction that's active and multi bidders have driven the final price up to near or even above any sounds 'notional' value in the UK - a better exchange rate only gives more scope for more bidding until it reaches this point, which it invariably does.

'Buying trips to the States' implies that the person involved has a proven round of targets (sellers) and will return laden with goodies - I haven't seen much evidence this for a long time - the odd fortuitous find excepted and I cannot see how any one can make an economic case for such trips, regardless of exchange rate - flights / accommodation / living expenses / internal travel costs just make it an expensive holiday when compounded with purchase costs of any finds. This of course will kill any previous margin calculations. Clicking 'add to cart' is a lot more cost effective than traipsing to the airport.

In the end the market will find the true price - irrespective of exchange rate - Do you want the sound ? / What will you pay for the sound ? and it will all depend on whether you are looking to sell on for a profit and as the internet has exposed the whole world to our dark little secret, the chances of dirt cheap finds are slender and just as it was 20/30/ 40 yrs ago - those who put in the hard yards ( time & diligence on the internet ) will always come out in front of the lazy buyers who historically have always expected to buy cheap ( a lot of celebrity dj's fall into this category - dealers as well ) - there is a reason you missed the under priced set-sale or the more exceptional low end price auction.

[Vadnochka]

Returning to a previous post - ref. Timmie Williams - Competition - when I got mine back in the early/mid 90's from a written sealed bid auction from Washington state, I got the heads up from David Foreman in Houston ( he knew the seller from US record conventions ) , in conversation that my bid of $695 was short and I found out that going to $800+ was almost certain to get it - I duly did for $811 - a couple of years later going on to Chaddy for @£1200 - also proving - its not always what you know but who you know as well as putting in the work.

[Upthejunction]

It's certainly put me off recently.  I purchased a Luther Davis in 2008 for $400 when the exchange rate was 1.87, so it worked out around £215.   I was looking to buy it back as I'd sold it on a few years back.  I've sourced one for the same $400 ,  but it would now cost me around £325 with current exchange rates, not taking into account higher postage or possible customs, so I've thought better of it     !!!

[Russ Vickers]

Doesnt affect me in the slightest, if there is a record that I want & I can afford it, within reason I buy it....

Russ

[Frankie Crocker]

1 hour ago, Russ Vickers said:

Doesnt affect me in the slightest, if there is a record that I want & I can afford it, within reason I buy it....

Russ

Cheers Russ. That's inelastic demand for you. Affordability is a function of pay, savings, costs of records and a host of other variables. Sure, we all have our 'top wants' and some might go out on a limb for them, but paying 20% on a set-sale item can be hard to justify when you're just starting to build a collection.

[Frankie Crocker]

3 hours ago, upthejunction said:

It's certainly put me off recently.  I purchased a Luther Davis in 2008 for $400 when the exchange rate was 1.87, so it worked out around £215.   I was looking to buy it back as I'd sold it on a few years back.  I've sourced one for the same $400 ,  but it would now cost me around £325 with current exchange rates, not taking into account higher postage or possible customs, so I've thought better of it     !!!

It's been putting me off just lately, hence the original post. Auction or set-sale prices, we could be burning our fingers here. Negative equity now creeping into record collections, never mind the housing market.

[Frankie Crocker]

6 hours ago, vadnochka said:

Returning to a previous post - ref. Timmie Williams - Competition - when I got mine back in the early/mid 90's from a written sealed bid auction from Washington state, I got the heads up from David Foreman in Houston ( he knew the seller from US record conventions ) , in conversation that my bid of $695 was short and I found out that going to $800+ was almost certain to get it - I duly did for $811 - a couple of years later going on to Chaddy for @£1200 - also proving - its not always what you know but who you know as well as putting in the work.

Very true. It helps to have a network of reliable contracts and up-to-date info. I had a good few records from David Foreman when he did Goldmine/Discoveries adverts and record fairs.

[Frankie Crocker]

6 hours ago, vadnochka said:

Exchange rates have always been volatile - My first trip to the USA - August 1968 -$2.40 / £1 = a penny for a penny - Wilson government devalued and we were on the bones of our arse as a nation - little did we know what was coming as the industrial strife of the 70's was just around the corner.

The current situation of @ $1.25 / £ is only relevant if you are in a set-sale as against an auction that's active and multi bidders have driven the final price up to near or even above any sounds 'notional' value in the UK - a better exchange rate only gives more scope for more bidding until it reaches this point, which it invariably does.

'Buying trips to the States' implies that the person involved has a proven round of targets (sellers) and will return laden with goodies - I haven't seen much evidence this for a long time - the odd fortuitous find excepted and I cannot see how any one can make an economic case for such trips, regardless of exchange rate - flights / accommodation / living expenses / internal travel costs just make it an expensive holiday when compounded with purchase costs of any finds. This of course will kill any previous margin calculations. Clicking 'add to cart' is a lot more cost effective than traipsing to the airport.

In the end the market will find the true price - irrespective of exchange rate - Do you want the sound ? / What will you pay for the sound ? and it will all depend on whether you are looking to sell on for a profit and as the internet has exposed the whole world to our dark little secret, the chances of dirt cheap finds are slender and just as it was 20/30/ 40 yrs ago - those who put in the hard yards ( time & diligence on the internet ) will always come out in front of the lazy buyers who historically have always expected to buy cheap ( a lot of celebrity dj's fall into this category - dealers as well ) - there is a reason you missed the under priced set-sale or the more exceptional low end price auction.

Trips to the US for the sole purpose of record searching are a financial loss and have been for a while. Family holidays to the US are all the better for a spot of crate digging, picking up a stash from your contact, taking in a record convention and generally doing what you feel although the fun has gone out shopping lately with the currency fall.  Isits yo hard working US record dealers continue to be fruitful in my experience but the days of $3 rarities are long gone.

[Pauldonnelly]

don't forget VAT when it arrives in the uk , if you want insurance to cover lost goods, the guy sending it needs to declare what it is and the the value, in the event it goes AWIL...I got done big time with a recent George Blackwell purchase..

[MrsWoodsrules]

Hi guys, not been on here for a while.

Was only thinking today about the low exchange rate with the dollar.

Well I won't be buying from the states or eurozone for a while unless it's a real cheapie as we're getting nothing for our money at the moment & I was wondering if we'll actually get a "reset" on generic prices from the US traders, if this low exchange rate continues?

As It's got to hurt them?

cheers ears

Aid

[Frankie Crocker]

Hi Hilda. Welcome back. I like the term 'reset' as it may adjust the dollar value of records to come into line with the fall of sterling. Do us record buyers sit back and wait or should the US dealers wake up and take the initiative?

[Russ Vickers]

On 10/11/2016 at 18:06, FRANKIE CROCKER said:

Cheers Russ. That's inelastic demand for you. Affordability is a function of pay, savings, costs of records and a host of other variables. Sure, we all have our 'top wants' and some might go out on a limb for them, but paying 20% on a set-sale item can be hard to justify when you're just starting to build a collection.

Hello mate, yes, but you are being more specific now than in your original question, you asked if people were still buying & yes I am, half a dozen things this week, but Im not generally going for the stuff everyone else is chasing, there are still cheap, good records out there & particularly if you are buying a few things from the same seller, as you save on postage......  

[Cover-up]

I just bought a $50 single from the the US. Add on postage, crap exchange rate, Paypal's super-crap exchange rate and... it cost £53. 

I know postage can't really be factored into the exchange rate, but it's worse than £=$ right now...

Edited October 14, 2016 by cover-up

[Guest]

If I am having to pay silly money to get a record that I really want, then paying a bit more due to the exchange rate is not going to put me off!

Ebay's Global shipping policy puts me off the most, but thats mostly because I don't support the priciple of it!

[Frankie Crocker]

1 hour ago, solidsoul said:

If I am having to pay silly money to get a record that I really want, then paying a bit more due to the exchange rate is not going to put me off!

Ebay's Global shipping policy puts me off the most, but thats mostly because I don't support the priciple of it!

You get caught six ways. US Post cost. eBay fees. PayPal fees. Customs charges. Post Office service charges. Credit card interest charges. And now to top it all off, an exchange rate that does no favours. I thought hobbies were supposed to be fun...

[Dukeofburgundy]

It is going to largely depend on what the record is and how much it is. That much hasn't changed.  As I approach sixty and retirement the idea always was to stop buying and enjoy the not insubstantial collection.  We'll see if I manage it !  The exchange rate has put me off but then so has the ludicrously high US postal rates and the customs charges which are more likely than they once were. It is some years since I bought anything from the main soul dealers in the UK or The Republic as they are rarely good value for money.

This situation is likely to stay with us for some years . The UK economy before the referendum was expected to grow by around 3% next year and by up to 7% over three years. The Government revision now suggests that  growth will be around 0.75% next year which is still in the right direction I suppose. Unfortunately inflation will rise by about 3.5%. Most of us will not have wage rises to keep up and in my case I'll be retired so buying records might not be our main priorities.  I read an article today in an esteemed economic journal that estimated that living standards would stagnate for perhaps fifteen years after Brexit. In fact personal debt and the high cost of housing will make this very likely indeed. The good news is that we should by then have a more flexible economy  and be able to have developed some niche industries to sell into Europe and beyond. It looks as if the devaluation of 15% will be the norm against the dollar so we'll just have to get used to the higher prices.  

Believe it or not I'm not normally a gloom merchant.

 

Edited October 18, 2016 by Stormcock

[Chris L]

Watching that Chubby Chrecker go for over £1000 probably tells us it hasn't kicked in yet.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Chris L

[Frankie Crocker]

1 hour ago, Chris L said:

Watching that Chubby Chrecker go for over £1000 probably tells us it hasn't kicked yet.

A sore point. I bid a substantial sum but less than the $1,500 I would have bid three months ago. So, this one escaped my clutches because of the poor exchange rate. Also a good example of how a previous big sale (in Texas), is soon followed by another copy as a patient seller thinks now's the time...